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Guild Expeditions Negotiation Strategy[]

This strategy is focused on GE negotiation with the Friends Tavern "Extra Turn" boost for 15 minutes and avoiding using diamonds. The Friends Tavern "Extra Turn" boost is found in the Tavern Shop in the "Resource Boosts" category and costs 1500 tavern silver.

It is pointless to try to fight through the first four encounters in Level 1 in GE, as it only requires coins and supplies for the first two and one extra good for the latter.

Keep in mind that you usually only have a guaranteed chance of success in any negotiation with 3 attempts if you have 4 goods or types of items to pay in negotiations.

Usually one "Extra Turn" boost for 15 minutes is long enough to do a complete set of 8 attempts, so about half a level. Having 4 turns instead of 3 turns significantly increases the chance successful negotiation (i.e. usually succeed).

The strategy changes according to the number of different resources involved in the negotiation. The focus of the strategy is to maximize the chance of success within 4 turns based on the probability of different cases.

This strategy does not explain all the minor corner cases, but tries to explain some general approaches to increase the chance of success, particularly the sections on "Not All Duplicates Are Equal" and "Defer 'Correct' Resources".


Preference Order[]

This strategy is referred to as the preference order. In a separate text editor, note down all the goods that are presented in the negotiation, then organize them by the most of which you have to the least. Then, exchange the goods to each person. If you need to input 5 items, follow the order. If you need to input 3 or 4, finish the order then restart the order with the last 2 chieftains. Repeat this strategy on each turn. This strategy works almost every time, and combined with the Extra Turn boost from the Friends Tavern, is almost impossible not to work.

Up To 3 Resources[]

This is fairly straight forward, and does not require the use of the "Extra Turn" boost from the friends tavern.

For your 1st turn, offer your 'cheapest' resource to all the locals. Your cheapest resource will either be coins or supplies, depending on which you have most of. For your 2nd turn, offer your next 'cheapest' resource. Then, if necessary, offer your final resource.

Just offer each resource in turn
1 Coins Coins Coins Coins Coins
2 Supplies Supplies Supplies
2 Wine Wine

For 4 Resources[]

This is the same method as up to 3 resources, but requires the use of the "Extra Turn" boost from the friends tavern to ensure success.

For 5 Resources[]

For 5 resources, there is not enough turns to use the simple approach to guarantee success. So for 5 resources, the strategy is to maximize the chance of successful negotiation within 4 turns. For 5 resources, first offer one of each resource.

If they are all either "correct" or "wrong person" (i.e. no "incorrect"), then there is only 1 of each resource, so just try different combinations until the correct one is found.

If some of the resources are "incorrect" (i.e. no person wants it), then it means that some of the resources are needed by more than one person. If this is the case, then you need to try different combinations with at least one of each resource still needed and duplicating some resources to fill the gaps.

Not All Duplicates Are Equal[]

When considering which resource to duplicate, choose ones that have a higher chance of being a duplicate. If they have equal chance, then just choose the cheapest.

For example, if on the first turn, one resource was "correct" and 3 other resources were "wrong person". Then the "correct" resource has a higher probability of having the duplicate (given that it had the correct position immediately means there is more likely to be more than one of them for that to happen).

The wine has higher chance of being duplicate because it hits correct position
1 Coins Supplies Wine Stone Marble
2 Marble Coins Wine Stone

Note, when offering duplicates, try to offer them in places that have previously given "wrong person" rather than "incorrect". The reason for this is to maximize the information for each position. In the first turn of the above example, the 2nd position was "incorrect" so it is known that person does not want "supplies", but it is known that the 4th position the person does not want "stone" (because it was "wrong" person) and does not want "supplies" (because it was "incorrect" in another position).

If there are no "correct" in the first turn, then duplicate the cheapest resource, but try to offer the duplicates in positions that gave "wrong person" (and not "incorrect"). In the example below, the two duplicate coins are not offered in the position of the "incorrect" supplies.

Try coins in two "wrong person" positions
1 Coins Supplies Wine Stone Marble
2 Stone Marble Coins Coins Wine

After the second turn in the above example, the resources are all "wrong person". We do not have enough information to know if the coins was the duplicate resource, but given it has been tried in more positions than other resources, it is actually less likely to be the duplicate than the other resources. So, on the third turn try duplicating another resource (stone, marble or wine).

For 6 Or More Resources[]

For 6 or more resources, the probability of duplicates decreases. The priority is to try all the resources at least once as soon as possible. Like the 5 resources case, first offer 5 different resources.

For the second turn, make sure you first offer resources that have not been tried yet. If possible, you should offer the new resources in positions that have previously given "wrong person" rather than "incorrect". This is because the new resource might also be "incorrect", and a position that has two "incorrect" carries less information than a position that has one "incorrect" and one "wrong person".

Try new lumber and dye resources in previous "wrong person" positions
1 Coins Supplies Wine Stone Marble
2 Wine Lumber Dye Stone

After excluding all the "incorrect" resources, if there are fewer than 5 matching resources, then there are duplicates. So try different duplicates, starting with the most likely duplicates. In the above example there are only 4 matching resources, try duplicating the "supplies" in the third turn as it was immediately "correct" in the first turn so has a higher probability of being the duplicate resource.

Note that if the first turn gives too many "correct" resources, this can actually decrease the success chance as there are fewer positions to work with to get information on the remaining resources. The priority is still to check all resources as least once, even if it means not trying some of the previous "wrong person" resources.

Try new lumber and dye resources in preference to marble in second turn
1 Coins Supplies Wine Stone Marble
2 Wine Lumber Dye

Defer "Correct" Resources[]

There may be times that you have worked out what the "correct" resource will be for a given position (by a process of elimination), but have not yet offered that resource yet. If it is not your last (fourth) turn and you are still trying to identify duplicates, then use the space to test another duplicate possibilities, and save giving the correct resource until the last turn.

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